TEHRAN, YJC. -- Recent events on the Korean peninsula indicate a frightening possibility that the situation spinning out of control.
Since the North was heavily penalised by
UN sanctions following its recent satellite launch and nuclear test,
Pyongyang has embarked on a near-daily onslaught of belligerent threats,
some of which include its invalidation of the 1953 armistice agreement
that ended the Korean War, threats to nuke the United States, and
threats to occupy South Korea and subsequently take all Americans in the
country hostage. Military analysts claim that North Korea is at least
several years from building a nuclear warhead or a missile capable of
reaching the US mainland - but there is no doubt that if the Kim regime
oversteps their approach, it could certainly have severe repercussions
for civilians in South Korea and Japan, both in range of North Korea’s
rockets.
Despite regular threats of destruction and Pyongyang’s recent
proclamation that the two Korean states are officially in a state of
war, day-to-day life has retained its normality according to sources on
the ground. Needless to say, there is no doubt that civilians on both
sides are feeling tense in the current scenario, especially those on
disputed South Korean islands in the West sea, just a stones throw away
from the North Korean maritime border. The four thousands residents of
the South’s Baengnyeong Island, which Kim Jong-un personally threatened
to "wipe out” in early March, have been severely hindered from carrying
out their day-to-day activities such as fishing due to the joint US-ROK
military exercises in the area. Despite inter-Korean relations reaching
their lowest point in recent times with the entire South on high alert,
most South Koreans are adept at brushing off the North’s rhetoric, but
they’re still proceeding with caution.
The question remains: what exactly is Kim Jong-un trying
to achieve through this campaign of bellicosity? North Korean state
media claims that the US "should clearly know that in the era of Marshal
Kim Jong Un, the greatest-ever commander, all things are different from
what they used to be in the past.”
The current approach being taken by Pyongyang is multifaceted, but
its central component is building up Kim’s image domestically and
rallying people around the flag - this has been reinforced by daily
public appearances and friendly photo-ops of Kim mingling with local
people, as well as an internal propaganda campaign likening him to his
grandfather Kim il-Sung, the founder and 'Eternal President' of North
Korea. The central message Pyongyang wants to send both internationally
and domestically is that Kim Jong-un’s era is distinctly different from
before - many South Korean observers have also noted this change in
approach, designed to make the regime’s moves more difficult to predict.
Most analysts are regarding the North’s rhetoric as their familiar
brand of psychological warfare whereby it cranks up the tensions and
threatens Seoul and Washington with destruction, and is then rewarded
with food aid and concessions when it tones things down, which it has
previously done in the months of April and May - harvest time. Pyongyang
likely views the present scenario as an opportune time to test the
water, keeping the new administrations of their neighbors in South
Korea, China and Japan on their toes. Despite the muscle flexing and the
foolish threats emanating out of Pyongyang, Washington’s recent
deployment of two nuclear-capable US B-2 stealth bombers illustrates
everything that is wrong with US policy toward the North - this kind of
move only serves to raise antagonisms and it in fact legitimizes
Pyongyang’s rhetoric of the US coaxing nuclear war on the peninsula.
In addition to joint US-ROK’s endless barrage of war games on North
Korea’s doorstep, the brandishing of B-2 bombers, which carry bombs that
can blast through 70 meters of reinforced concrete, is an unnecessary
stunt that is both bold and needlessly provocative. In fact, the B-2
flyover helps Kim Jong-un in consolidating his political power at home
by rallying domestic support behind the US threat and distracting North
Koreans from economic problems. These moves beg the question, is the
United States prepared to launch a full-scale war against North Korea?
Despite the high public disapproval of overt warfare campaigns launched
by the Bush administration, the unholy status North Korea enjoys in
American mainstream media - coupled with its threats to nuke the United
States and the simple fact that is it a communist state - is likely
enough to coax the average American into supporting a war of aggression
against Pyongyang.
Despite the fact that the war would be relatively easy to sell to
the public, the United States is financially strained and in no position
to engage North Korea and endure massive causalities within its
military, not to mention the risk of pulling China into the fold.
Therefore, Washington would likely find nuclear weapons to be the most
cost-effective way to quell the North Korean threat, an equally
unacceptable scenario. At this point, North Korea is a godsend for the
US military industrial complex and the defense industry, and South Korea
is set to keep its status as the world’s single biggest importer of US
weaponry. As the Obama administration pursues its pivot the Asia-Pacific
region, the colorful belligerence of North Korea is exactly what it
needs not only to maintain its unpopular military presence in South
Korea and Japan, but also to further bolster its military muscle on
China’s doorstep.
Despite North Korea’s threats being empty, one should not dismiss
the possibility that they will respond to provocations with force, much
like how they shelled South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island in 2010 as a
response to South Korean military exercises that fired live rounds into
their territorial waters. This kind of small-scale fire exchange has the
possibility to ignite the situation into a larger and more dangerous
standoff, so it is of maximum importance that cool heads prevail and
needlessly provocative displays of military muscle are scaled back.
Koreans have historically seen themselves as a shrimp amongst whales -
where they saw their peninsula abused by the US and the Soviet Union
yesterday, they fear the same scenario repeating itself between the US
and China today. If the Obama administration is not careful, it will
provoke Pyongyang into doing something rash and by then, it will already
be too late to rectify the situation.
Source: Agencies