Wednesday, 27 October 2020 (YJC)_ Democratic presidential nominee’s polling lead over Donald Trump is holding steady in a significant shift from 2016.
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s polling lead over President Trump is holding steady in a significant shift from 2016, when Democrat Hillary Clinton saw her lead fall in the week before Election Day.
All of the factors that pollsters measure to analyze volatility among likely voters — the number of undecideds, those considering third-party candidates and leaners who could still change their minds — are down at this point in 2020 compared to in 2016, keeping the race at a steady level that favors Biden in the home stretch.
Nearly 60 million people have already voted, and the pool of undecided voters is dwindling. And while the polls have not fully digested last week’s debate, which seemed to be a net positive for Trump, it seems unlikely it will be a late game-changer.
“We just haven’t seen a lot of movement,” said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray. “Every now and then you’ll see it jump around a bit, but that’s all in a normal range and due to differences in polling, rather than real movement. We’re measuring less volatility in the electorate than at this time four years ago, when we saw the gap between the candidates closing. That’s just not happening this time around.”
At this point in 2016, the polls had begun to tighten significantly, even if many analysts ignored it.
There are a number of differences between 2016 and 2020, most notably the coronavirus pandemic, which is the defining issue of the campaign.
One of the turning points in 2016 came just 11 days before Election Day when former FBI Director James Comey announced he was reopening an investigation into Clinton. Democrats blamed Comey for Clinton’s loss.
In contrast, a majority of the voters who broke late for Trump in 2016 — independents, suburban women and seniors — are telling pollsters they support Biden in 2020.
Critically, the Democratic nominee has surpassed the 50 percent mark in recent national and battleground surveys, while Trump remains mired in the low to mid-40s. Clinton was below the 50 percent mark in all but two national polls released in November of 2016, while Biden is at 51 percent support in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average.
In 2016, voters who disliked both candidates broke for Trump.
Biden is far more popular than Clinton, and voters who dislike both major-party candidates in 2020 are telling pollsters they’ll vote for the Democrat.
Joe Biden’s national polling lead over Trump has shrunk to a degree, but not to the extent that Clinton’s did, and it still leaves Biden with a solid advantage.
That poll found late-breaking undecideds in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin going for Biden, along with 2016’s third-party voters and people who did not vote in the last election. Only about 3 to 5 percent of voters in those states are undecided, and Biden leads by between 8 and 10 points in each.
The latest CBS News battleground trackers show Biden with small leads over Trump in North Carolina and Florida. The candidates are tied in Georgia. A new Dallas Morning News poll shows Biden ahead of Trump by 3 points in Texas. Trump must win all four of those states to have a shot at a second term.
Biden’s campaign will press into red territory this week, with the former vice president campaigning in Georgia and his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), making the trip to Texas.
Polls show Biden leading in every recent poll of Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nevada.
And the Trump campaign is also committing a lot of valuable time to states the president won easily in 2016.
Source: The hill
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