Tuesday, 06 October 2020_There’s usually one October surprise, if any, but it’s only day 5 and look how many we’ve had? That surprise is often thought that it would benefit the president as he literally has an entire arsenal, political and military, to grab the upper hand. The thing about it is you never know where it’s coming from. Makes for an exciting month. In 2016 there wasn’t much of one, if any, and for that the incumbent party took a humiliating defeat.
So what could be on the horizon? Trump could die. That would make things a bit confusing. There are rules for selecting nominees and Constitutional protocols so as shocking as that would be, it would at least guarantee a smooth transition of power. And in that line of thinking, Biden could die. That’s probably an easier problem as the Party decides the replacement.
Other political surprises would be many in Congress being positive, throwing the nomination process of Barrett out the window. Right now they’re pushing what’s normally about a 70 day period of time for hearings into less than 30. Could it be extended into the new year with a new Congress? If it were to be a Democratic win in the Senate, and the Senate yet to vote, clearly the nomination would most likely be withdrawn, regardless of who the president is.
Foreign policy matters is another direction the surprise could go. With the commander-in-chief nearly out of commission, what danger is the US in regarding its adversaries? Will some power take advantage of the situation? Will China make a move in the South China Sea? What if the situation were reverse and because the president is so weakened, he makes a belligerent move as a way of deflecting his weakened state? Invade Venezuela? He, and the Democrats, have been itching for that fight for a long time. What if the armed forces command refuse, as is their duty, to obey an unlawful command? Hurricane season ends in November. What if another strikes right before the election? Will it be postponed? It can’t be by law. Irony being that the area most likely to be hit would be Republican- the Deep South and Texas. And they are most likely to be going to the polls.
There are so many possibilities for other October surprises and clearly some not even thought about or seemingly so improbable. What about that meteor heading our way? Now that would top Trump in all that he’s up to. But knowing Trump, he’d find a way to make even that secondary to himself.
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