- Iranians holding Ashura mourning for Imam Hussein
- Third step: Iran officially informs EU of plan to expand nuclear R&D
- Iran expands nuclear R&D program: Rouhani
- Iran goes ahead in space tech, despite US sanctions: ISA
- Resistance Front undermining Israeli regime power: Top commander
- Iran: 7 crew members of detained UK ship freed
- US addiction to sanction threaten its power: Iran’s Zarif
- Dutch role in 2007 Stuxnet attack on Iran’s nuclear site under scrutiny: Iraian FM Spox.
- Iran: ‘Sustainable Security 2019’ kicks off in Caspian Sea
- Iran’s Zarif leaves Tehran for Moscow
- Shiraz University ranked 1st in liver transplantation: Iranian health official
- Japan’s Abe to meet Iran’s president to discuss easing tension in region
- Downing of US spy drone shattered war threats against Iran: Top IRGC commander
- IAEO head reports development of first ion-therapy hospital in west of Asia
- Iranian Taekwondo team wins 2019 World Cup championship
- US sanctions failed to force Iran to buckle: Report
- Crew fixing Iran oil tanker broken down in Red Sea
- As Iranians hold nerves, US seeks to scare off trade
- Leader expresses concern about Kashmir, urges India to follow fair policy toward Muslim-majority region
- Iran saffron exports down due to smuggling, government restrictions: Exporter
- Iran FM warns US against ‘serious miscalculation’ in Persian Gulf
- Iran’s resistance policy led to release of oil tanker: MP
- Iran in reverse brain drain as top students come home in rising numbers
- Iran official calls for compensation for tanker seizure
- Iran hails N Korea for standing against ‘unilateral’ US demands
- Shia Muslims celebrate Eid Al-Ghadir
- North Korea praises Iran’s anti-US struggle
- Zarif says to meet French president Friday
- Iranian court hearing case of UK oil tanker
- Over half of Japanese voters oppose joining US-led anti-Iran coalition in Persian Gulf: Poll
- IME trade ups by 21 percent in July
- Finland backs INSTEX in defiance of US
- US anti-Iran policy in high seas harms Europeans: LA Times
- Iran, China confer on Syria
- Iran, Finland share views on Persian Gulf dialogue forum: Zarif
- Iran warns US against seizure of oil tanker
- Iraq eager to benefit from Iranian Police’s experience
- Iran planning 3rd step to reduce nuclear commitments: Spokesman
- Leader grants clemency to over 1,000 Iranian inmates
- Registration for Arbaeen Pilgrimage to begin in Iran on Friday
- Iran, Iraq agree to reopen Khosravi border crossing
- Iran deplores suicide attack at Kabul wedding hall
- Iran to hold int'l hand-woven carpets expo
- Zarif meets with Iran-Kuwait Friendship Group members
- Adrian Darya oil tanker not under any sanctions, says Iran envoy
- ‘Iran to stay in nuclear deal as long as its interests are met’
- India envoy happy with positive trend of trade with Iran
- Iran’s annual export of white meat tops 2.5m tons: Minister
- Iranian scientist discovers new state of matter
- Iran, Japan diplomats discuss bilateral ties
- Iran, Ansarullah, European representatives Yemen developments
- ‘Iran to become self-sufficient in producing aircraft engines'
- US issues seizure warrant for Iranian supertanker 'Grace 1'
- Neanderthal tooth unearthed near Iran’s Zagros mountain
- Iran’s Zarif due in Kuwait on Saturday
- US faces humiliating defeat after Gibraltar releases Iranian tanker: Envoy
- Spokesman rejects claim on Iran’s commitment in exchange for tanker release
- Zarif reacts to release of Iranian tanker in Gibraltar
- Israel, UAE engaged in secret talks on Iran arranged by US: Report
- US threatens visa ban as Iranian-operated tanker sets to sail from Gibraltar
- Enemies must factor Iran's global power in their calculations: IRGC's chief commander
- Trump’s administration conflicting messages to Iran baffle go-betweens: Report
- Gibraltar releases Iran-operated tanker despite US pressure
TEHRAN, Sept 04 -Professor Paul Pillar, who was CIA intelligence analyst for 28 years, tells that “Trump wants some agreement that he can describe, accurately or not, as a "better deal" than what his predecessor President Obama got.”
TEHRAN, Young Journalists Club (YJC) -Pillar in an exclusive interview with YJC says “Trump is unlikely to remove all the reimposed sanctions prior to any talks, and the Rouhani government probably will not hold out for that demand to be fully met before sitting down to negotiate.”
He also adds that “Trump has shown--as with the North American trade agreement--that he is willing to accept an agreement little changed from what was there before, as long as he can claim that the new deal is supposedly different and better.”
Paul R. Pillar is an academic and 28-year veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), serving from 1977 to 2005.He is now a non-resident senior fellow at Georgetown University's Center for Security Studies, as well as a nonresident senior fellow in the Brookings Institution's Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence. He was a visiting professor at Georgetown University from 2005 to 2012. He is a contributor to The National Interest.
Following is the text of the interview:
Q: What objectives does French President Emanuel Macron pursue in mediation between Iran and the US? Are these efforts made in coordination with Washington?
A: President Macron has assumed the role of leader of the West--with the U.S. administration isolating itself, and other European leaders unable to play that role for various reasons--on several issues. In this case, his objectives are to preserve the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and to reduce the chance of war breaking out between the United States and Iran. He appears to be acting on his own initiative. There probably was not coordination with Washington, although President Trump now appears amenable to negotiations and is willing to accept the help of Macron in trying to get negotiations started.
Q: Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif surprise visit to biarritz (G7 summit) raised the speculation over Iran-US talks. Macron even hoped a meeting between the Iranian President Rouhani and his American counterpart Trump could occur on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Was it Macron's personal idea or promoted as a result of his meeting with Zarif?
A: We can only guess at what exactly was said between Macron and Zarif, but the visit was probably Macron's own idea. Although Zarif did not need to be pressured to make the trip, he also has opened himself up to some criticism back in Tehran.
Q: In a Joint press conference with his American counterpart, Macron hoped for a new deal with Iran in exchange for more economic benefits. It seems that French President agrees with Trump on a new deal which includes Iran’s missile program as well as sunset provisions and greater access for IAEA inspectors. As these issues are among the Iran red lines, how do you evaluate the prospect of any potential talks between Iran and the US?
A: Trump wants some agreement that he can describe, accurately or not, as a "better deal" than what his predecessor President Obama got. Macron realizes this and has concluded that he is more likely to get Trump's cooperation if he uses the language of a "new deal". This does not mean that any new agreement has to be much different from the JCPOA. Trump has shown--as with the North American trade agreement--that he is willing to accept an agreement little changed from what was there before, as long as he can claim that the new deal is supposedly different and better. Most likely a new agreement with Iran would make minor adjustments to the sunset clauses in the JCPOA, with a few other tweaks that Trump can describe as different. No agreement limiting missiles is likely unless it were a multilateral agreement that limited the missile capabilities of other Middle Eastern states as well as Iran.
Q: The direct talk with Iran seems to be beneficial for Trump’s reelection campaign. But Rouhani backed off the idea of direct talks, saying Washington must first lift sanctions. What kind of concessions may he offer to convince Iran?
A: The most obvious initial concession the U.S. administration could make is to restore the waivers of oil sanctions for the several countries that as of a few months ago were still importing Iranian oil. Trump is unlikely to remove all the reimposed sanctions prior to any talks, and the Rouhani government probably will not hold out for that demand to be fully met before sitting down to negotiate. But there needs to be at least a partial lifting of the sanctions, such as through restoration of the waivers.
Q: Since Trump has a really bad reputation in pulling the US out of international deals, will any potential deal have an executive guarantee? Trump dropped JCPOA despite the fact that it is part of resolution 2231 voted by every member of the UN Security Council.
A: There is no way to get an iron-clad guarantee of that type. Even agreements that take the form of formal treaties often have withdrawal clauses. But Iranian leaders should realize that if Trump negotiates a new agreement about the nuclear program, there will not be the same danger of reneging that there was when the Obama administration reached an agreement and then Obama's party lost the next U.S. election. Trump is as bad as it can get. If a Democrat wins the next U.S. election, the new president is not going to renege on whatever Trump and Iran had signed up to.
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