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TEHRAN, Apr 09-The rapid spread of African swine fever through China has left American farmers uncertain about the future of agricultural trade between the two countries, even after the trade war ends.
TEHRAN, Young Journalists Club (YJC) -China has culled some 1 million hogs since the epidemic began in September, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. But that has done little to slow the spread of the disease, and experts estimate it will claim many millions more of the animals in the coming years.
"It could be as much as 30 percent of China's herd impacted," said Michael Nepveux, an economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation.
Such a dramatic reduction in China's hog population would send shock waves through international agricultural markets, Nepveux said.
China is the most populated country on earth and pork is its main protein. Losing domestic herds would force the country to import substantially more pork or other protein to feed its people. At the same time, with fewer animals to feed, the demand for imported soybeans -- which are used mainly as meal to feed hogs and other livestock -- could plummet.
"There's no question there is going to be a reduced demand" for soy, said Tim Bardole, an Iowa soybean grower and president-elect of the Iowa Soybean Association. "There are a wide range of estimates, but it will be a pretty substantial reduction."
China already is importing more pork this spring, Nepveux said. And some of those sales have gone to American producers. However, it is unclear if that will translate into substantial increases in the coming years.
China currently has a 62 percent tariff on American pork, which was placed as retaliation for tariffs the Trump administration levied on Chinese goods last year. As long as that tariffs remain, it's unlikely U.S. companies will have much access to the Chinese market, said Jim Monroe, a spokesman for the National Pork Producers Council.
"We have shipped a significant percentage of our pork to China in the past," Monroe said. "I can't speculate on how exports are going to flow to China, but I can say that they will be looking for a reliable source of pork. And we have the best in the world."
Meanwhile, a similar tariff remains on American soybeans, as part of the trade war.
Source:upi
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